U.S. economic data were mixed in March, although leading indicators signaled low odds of a recession in the coming year [Figure 1]. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, an aggregate of ten leading indicators, rose 0.2% in February for its first gain in five months and 3% year over year.

U.S. economic data were sound in February, even as confidence fell amid uncertainty from global trade and political headwinds. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), an aggregate of ten leading indicators, declined 0.1% in January, but grew 3.5% year over year. While the LEI declined month over month, positive year-over-year momentum signaled low odds of recession in the coming year...

January’s reports painted a picture of a solid economy struggling with global uncertainty. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), an aggregate of ten leading indicators, declined 0.1% in December, but grew 4.3% year over year for 2018. While the LEI declined for the month, positive year-over-year momentum signaled low odds of recession in the coming year...

Economic trends generally improved in December, even amid some of the most significant financial market volatility of the bull market. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), an aggregate of ten leading indicators, increased 0.2% in November and 5.2% year over year. While LEI growth slowed for a second month, positive momentum signaled low odds of recession in the coming year....

Economic trends generally improved in November, even after strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the last two quarters. The average hourly earnings grew 3.1% year over year last month, the first time that measure of wage growth has eclipsed 3% since April 2009. Consumer Confidence in November fell month over month but it essentially remained at an 18-year high, signaling that strong consumer activity may continue to boost output...

Overall, October’s economic reports reflected solid U.S. economic growth and manageable inflationary pressures. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 3.5% annualized in the third quarter, boosting average growth over the last two quarters to 3.9%, the strongest pace since 2014. Consumer Confidence reached an 18-year high, signaling that strong consumer activity may continue to boost output. The unemployment rate’s drop to a 48-year low...

Economic reports released in September indicated solid US economic growth without significant inflationary pressures, though wage gains bear monitoring; with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9%, the percentage of workers quitting their jobs jumped to a 17-year high, a positive sign for the economy. US average hourly earnings continue to rise as wages grew 2.9% year over year in August, the highest growth rate of this economic cycle...