Arizona’s housing market enters 2026 in a unique phase—offering potential opportunities for buyers ready to make strategic moves. With mortgage rates easing, inventory growing, and demand stabilizing, here’s what National Bank of Arizona clients should know if they’re considering a home purchase in the next year.

Market trends at a glance

Moderating home prices

According to Redfin, the median home price in Arizona reached $448,400 in November 2025, up just 0.1% year-over-year, while monthly sales climbed 1.2% to 6,953 homes. In Phoenix, Redfin reports a median home price of about $450,000 as of October 2025, with prices dipping slightly from last year. Phoenix's Zillow Home Values Index is currently $403,317, down 4.3% over the past year, reflecting recent downward pressure.

Balanced supply begins to return

Arizona’s active listing inventory in November 2025 is up 8.9%, with approximately 45,267 homes for sale, according to Redfin, which is about 5 months of supply, representing closer alignment with a neutral market. In Phoenix specifically, inventory increased 27.5% year-over-year in August 2025—23,352 active listings, with a balanced market supply of around 4 months.

Q1 2026 Outlook

Interest rates remain elevated but stable

Zillow forecasts mortgage rates to hover above 6% through 2026. Their economists anticipate rates won't dip below 6%, though they may moderate slightly—ending the year in the low 6s. While not ideal for rate shoppers, this level is a marked improvement over earlier peaks and has helped affordability rebound to its best point in three years.

Check National Bank of Arizona's mortgage rates.

Sales pick up momentum

Zillow also predicts 4.26 million existing home sales in 2026, a 4.3% increase over 2025, driven by improving affordability and rising buyer confidence. In addition, they also foresee modest home value appreciation (+1.2% nationally) and stabilization across most markets

Market reset: Less frenzy, more options

Redfin refers to this emerging trend as “The Great Housing Reset,” marked by a gradual shift toward a healthier balance of supply and demand through 2026.

Q1 Conditions you can expect

• Mortgage Rates: Likely 6.0–6.3%—still elevated but lower than peaks seen in 2025.
• Inventory: Sustained growth, especially in communities like Buckeye, Goodyear, and Surprise.
• Pricing: Stable to mildly rising—Arizona prices remain largely flat (+0.1% YoY), while Phoenix saw a slight decline (~0.5% YoY).
• Buyer Advantage: More negotiating power with longer days on market (~64–66 days) and increased willingness from sellers to offer concessions, according to Redfin.

Mortgage & buying tips for 2026

•  Lock in a pre-qualification early: With rates floating in the 6% range, securing a mortgage pre-qualification now can give you leverage when homes hit the market.
• Credit & debt optimization: Maintain or improve your credit score and reduce debt to qualify for better rates—Zillow reports easing affordability from the pandemic lows encourages lenders to be more flexible.
• Lock in or buy down rates: Utilize seller-funded rate buydowns to reduce your initial monthly payments and strengthen your offer.
• Choose your loan wisely: Fixed Rate Mortgages provide stability amid moderate rate shifts, while Adjustable Rate Mortgages may benefit those willing to refinance later.
• Time it right: With more inventory and slower price increases, early 2026 may offer the best window for negotiation and purchasing flexibility.

Related Article: The Ultimate First-Time Homebuyer's Guide

The bottom line

Is 2026 the time to buy in Arizona? Yes—if you're prepared and do your homework.

Ready to make your move? Whether you’re buying your first home or upgrading, our team is here to help you navigate every step. Browse our home loan options and apply online, or schedule an appointment today.